Viewing archive of Monday, 12 August 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Aug 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 58 (S06W75) produced isolated C-class flares as it gradually decayed. Region 69 (S07E65) was stable as it rotated further into view. It was large with an area exceeding 1100 millionths of the solar disk. It appeared to be moderately complex and may contain a magnetic delta within its intermediate spots, though limb proximity prevented a thorough analysis. Four new regions were assigned today: 73 (N16W13), 74 (N24W01), 75 (S09E32), and 76 (N12E75); all of which were unremarkable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. There is a chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 69.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels due to recurrent coronal hole effects.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to remain at quiet to active levels on 13 August as coronal hole effects continue. Field activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels for the rest of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Aug to 15 Aug
Class M 40%40%40%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Aug 184
  Predicted    13 Aug-15 Aug  190/190/190
  90 Day Mean        12 Aug 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug  013/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Aug  015/018
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug  015/016-012/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug to 15 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%25%
Minor storm 10%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%35%30%
Minor storm 15%10%10%
Major-severe storm 05%01%01%

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