Viewing archive of Saturday, 10 August 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Aug 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity was low. No optical reports were received for the minor C-class flare activity observed throughout the period. However, a large filament located near central meridian at about N30 appeared to dissipate early in the period, in association with a subsequent CME evident in LASCO C2 imagery at about 09/2330 UTC. This CME appears directed largely north of the ecliptic. Two new regions rotated into view on the east limb and were numbered today: Region 67 (N09E71) and Region 68 (S07E71).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low. Region 61 (N08W15) is still a moderately large region which could produce isolated M-class activity during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels early in the period, then at quiet to unsettled levels for the remainder. The isolated minor storm period was observed at higher latitudes during 10/0300-0600 UTC, in probable association with a sustained period of southward Bz during that time.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled for the first day of the forecast period. Isolated active periods are possible on day two and three, due to expected coronal hole effects, or possibly some flanking shock passage effects from the CME activity described in section 1A above.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Aug to 13 Aug
Class M 25%25%25%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Aug 148
  Predicted    11 Aug-13 Aug  145/150/150
  90 Day Mean        10 Aug 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug  009/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Aug  009/015
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug  008/010-012/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug to 13 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%25%30%
Minor storm 05%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%30%35%
Minor storm 05%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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