Viewing archive of Saturday, 10 August 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Aug 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was low. No optical reports were
received for the minor C-class flare activity observed throughout
the period. However, a large filament located near central meridian
at about N30 appeared to dissipate early in the period, in
association with a subsequent CME evident in LASCO C2 imagery at
about 09/2330 UTC. This CME appears directed largely north of the
ecliptic. Two new regions rotated into view on the east limb and
were numbered today: Region 67 (N09E71) and Region 68 (S07E71).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low. Region 61 (N08W15) is still a moderately large
region which could produce isolated M-class activity during the
period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels early in
the period, then at quiet to unsettled levels for the remainder.
The isolated minor storm period was observed at higher latitudes
during 10/0300-0600 UTC, in probable association with a sustained
period of southward Bz during that time.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled for the first day of the
forecast period. Isolated active periods are possible on day two
and three, due to expected coronal hole effects, or possibly some
flanking shock passage effects from the CME activity described in
section 1A above.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Aug to 13 Aug
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Aug 148 Predicted 11 Aug-13 Aug 145/150/150 90 Day Mean 10 Aug 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug 009/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug 009/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug 008/010-012/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug to 13 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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