Viewing archive of Friday, 9 August 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Aug 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event of the period was an optically uncorrelated C2.0 flare at 09/0900 UTC. Region 61 (N18E00) produced a C1.4/Sf event at 09/0650 UTC. This region remains the largest on the visible disk, but now exhibits reduced penumbral coverage, weakening its prior delta configuration. New Region 66 (N14E70) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low. A small chance for M-class activity still exists, especially for Region 61.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Active periods occurred in association with a rising trend in solar wind speed and sustained periods of southward Bz.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods possible during the first day of the forecast period, and again on the third day due to potential high speed stream effects from a coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Aug to 12 Aug
Class M 25%25%25%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Aug 140
  Predicted    10 Aug-12 Aug  140/145/150
  90 Day Mean        09 Aug 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug  005/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Aug  010/014
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug  008/010-005/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug to 12 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%25%
Minor storm 10%05%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%15%25%
Minor storm 10%05%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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