Viewing archive of Friday, 9 August 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Aug 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event of
the period was an optically uncorrelated C2.0 flare at 09/0900 UTC.
Region 61 (N18E00) produced a C1.4/Sf event at 09/0650 UTC. This
region remains the largest on the visible disk, but now exhibits
reduced penumbral coverage, weakening its prior delta configuration.
New Region 66 (N14E70) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low. A small chance for M-class activity still
exists, especially for Region 61.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Active periods
occurred in association with a rising trend in solar wind speed and
sustained periods of southward Bz.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, with isolated active
periods possible during the first day of the forecast period, and
again on the third day due to potential high speed stream effects
from a coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Aug to 12 Aug
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Aug 140 Predicted 10 Aug-12 Aug 140/145/150 90 Day Mean 09 Aug 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug 005/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug 010/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug 008/010-005/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug to 12 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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