Viewing archive of Thursday, 8 August 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Aug 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Aug 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest event of the
period was an optically uncorrelated C1.9 flare at 08/0104 UTC.
Region 57 (S08W90) and Region 61 (N08E14) both produced lesser,
subfaint flares during the period. Most active regions remain
little changed from yesterday. Region 65 (S10E55) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
mainly low for the next three days, with some chance for isolated
M-class flare activity most likely from Region 61, or Region 63
(N17E51).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
Isolated active periods are possible during the first day of the
period, due to potential effects from a coronal hole located near
geoeffective heliographic longitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Aug to 11 Aug
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Aug 135 Predicted 09 Aug-11 Aug 135/135/140 90 Day Mean 08 Aug 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Aug 004/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Aug 004/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug 008/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug to 11 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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