Viewing archive of Monday, 5 August 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Aug 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was low. Today's largest event was a
C4/Sf at 0517 UTC from Region 57 (S07W53). The Region showed some
growth in the central part of the group and is a magnetic beta-gamma
region due to some weak polarity mixing in a predominantly bipolar
group. New Region 62 (S05W23) emerged on the disk today as a small
simple C-type region. The remaining active regions were quiet,
stable, and largely unchanged. There were indications of a new group
rotating around east limb at N09. A small filament near N00E35
disappeared sometime during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low. There is, however, a chance for an isolated M-class
event from Region 57 over the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours. An increase
to mostly unsettled with some isolated active periods is expected on
the second and third days in response to a favorably positioned
coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Aug to 08 Aug
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Aug 142 Predicted 06 Aug-08 Aug 140/140/135 90 Day Mean 05 Aug 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug 012/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug 007/012-012/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug to 08 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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