Viewing archive of Thursday, 1 August 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Aug 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 44 (S21W62) produced a C6/Sf flare at 01/1707 UTC. Region 44 appeared to be relatively stable maintaining a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 50 (S08W45) was very active, producing seven C-Class events. The largest of these events was a C5/Sf flare at 01/0520 UTC. Region 39(S15W58) continues to show gradual decay and has simplified to a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Two new regions were numbered today: Region 57 (S08E02) and Region 58 (S05E72).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 39, Region 44, and Region 50 have the potential for M-class events. Region 39 and Region 50 have a chance of producing a major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels with one period of minor storm conditions. A shock passage was observed by the NASA/ACE spacecraft at 01/0425 UTC and a corresponding 26 nT sudden impulse was recorded at 01/0511 UTC on the Boulder magnetometer. This sudden impulse was followed by active to minor storm conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. A negative polarity coronal hole is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position on day two of the forecast period. There is a chance of active conditions due to the effects of the coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Aug to 04 Aug
Class M75%65%55%
Class X20%15%10%
Proton20%15%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Aug 193
  Predicted   02 Aug-04 Aug  185/180/170
  90 Day Mean        01 Aug 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul  006/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Aug  017/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug  010/015-012/010-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug to 04 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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