Viewing archive of Monday, 29 July 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jul 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 210 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jul 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity remained at moderate levels. Region 44 (S21W24) produced four M-class flares during the period: an M2 at 28/2312 UTC, an M1 at 29/0023 UTC, an M4/1f at 29/0238 UTC associated with a 380 sfu Tenflare and a Type II radio sweep, and a long-duration M4 at 29/1044 UTC. The M4 flare at 29/1044 UTC may have been associated with a partial-halo CME. Region 44 showed a slight increase in sunspot area in its trailer portion. However, the region simplified slightly as the delta magnetic configuration within its intermediate spots showed signs of decay. Region 39 (S11W18) produced isolated C-class flares during the period. It remained large and magnetically complex with delta magnetic configurations within its leading and trailing spots, though the trailing delta may be decaying. Region 43 (N12W26) remained in a gradual growth phase and produced a C5/Sf flare late in the period. Region 50 (S07W06) produced a C8/Sf flare at 29/1941 UTC as it continued to increase in area and complexity. A magnetic delta may have formed within its intermediate spots. New Region 55 (N14E75) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Regions 39 and 44 are expected to produce M-class flares. Either region could produce a major flare during the period. Region 50 could produce an isolated M-class flare during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels during the first half of the period. ACE solar wind data indicated a shock passage at L1 at 29/1241 UTC followed by a weak sudden impulse (SI) at Earth at 29/1330 UTC (9 nT, as measured by the Boulder USGS magnetometer). Field activity increased to unsettled to active levels following the SI.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 30 July decreasing to quiet to unsettled levels on 31 July. Field activity is expected to increase to active levels on 01 August in response to today's long-duration M4 flare. There is a chance for a proton event during the period.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jul to 01 Aug
Class M80%80%80%
Class X30%30%30%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Jul 234
  Predicted   30 Jul-01 Aug  235/230/230
  90 Day Mean        29 Jul 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jul  009/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Jul  013/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug  015/015-010/010-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jul to 01 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%40%
Minor storm15%05%20%
Major-severe storm05%01%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%30%45%
Minor storm20%20%25%
Major-severe storm10%01%15%

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