Viewing archive of Friday, 26 July 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jul 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been high. Region 44 (S21E17) produced five M-class events. The largest was an M8/2n at 26/2112 UTC. It also produced an M4/1n at 26/0010 UTC with an associated 250 sfu Tenflare and a long duration M1/Sn at 26/0829 UTC. This region has grown significantly and is currently 430 millionths of white light with 42 spots and a magnetic beta-gamma configuration. This region is located to the southwest of Region 39 (S16E22) which has an area of 940 millionths of white light and a magnetic delta configuration. Three new regions were numbered today as Regions 48 (N18E52), 49 (S06W30) and 50 (S07E36).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Isolated major flares are possible from Regions 39 and 44.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that started 22/0655 UTC is still in progress with the tentative maximum of 28 sfu at 23/1025 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active conditions are possible as a result of the activity from the past several days. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to drop below threshold within the next 24 hours.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jul to 29 Jul
Class M 80%80%80%
Class X 30%30%30%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Jul 242
  Predicted    27 Jul-29 Jul  225/225/220
  90 Day Mean        26 Jul 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul  009/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Jul  012/013
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul  010/015-010/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul to 29 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm 10%10%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm 20%15%15%
Major-severe storm 10%05%05%

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