Viewing archive of Thursday, 25 July 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jul 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 206 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jul 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 39 (S16E34) produced a long duration C2 at 25/0921 UTC which was observed in the SOHO EIT imagery. Region 39 continues to maintain a magnetic delta configuration. Region 36 (S07W54) continues to produce C-class events and retains its beta-gamma magnetic structure. A new region was numbered today as Region 47 (N07W48).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. A major flare is possible from Regions 36 and 39.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. A weak shock passed the ACE spacecraft at 25/1300 UTC. This shock is believed related to the full halo CME on 23 July. The level of disturbance in the geomagnetic field following the shock was below expectation. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that started 22/0655 UTC is still in progress with the tentative maximum of 28 pfu at 23/1025 UTC. The energetic electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit were at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are possible due to the activity over the past several days. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. The energetic electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit are expected to remain at high levels for the next several days.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jul to 28 Jul
Class M 80%80%80%
Class X 30%30%30%
Proton99%99%99%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Jul 218
  Predicted    26 Jul-28 Jul  220/220/225
  90 Day Mean        25 Jul 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jul  008/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Jul  012/013
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 26 Jul-28 Jul  015/015-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jul to 28 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%25%25%
Minor storm 20%10%10%
Major-severe storm 10%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%30%30%
Minor storm 20%15%15%
Major-severe storm 10%05%05%

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