Viewing archive of Wednesday, 24 July 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jul 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 39 (S15E48)
produced an M1/1f at 24/1555 UTC with an associated Type IV radio
sweep. This region continues to maintain a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic configuration and has increased in spot count since
yesterday. Two new regions were numbered today as Region 45
(N04E17) and 46 (N14E22).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 36 (S07W42) and 39 are both capable of
producing a major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. The greater than 10
MeV proton event that started 22/0655 UTC continues with the
tentative maximum of 28 pfu at 23/1025 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for 25 and 26 July.
This activity is a result of the X4 event at 23/0035 UTC. The
geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on 27 July.
The proton event currently in progress is likely to continue for the
next 24 hours.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jul to 27 Jul
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 99% | 99% | 99% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jul 208 Predicted 25 Jul-27 Jul 210/210/215 90 Day Mean 24 Jul 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul 011/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jul 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul 030/030-020/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul to 27 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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