Viewing archive of Wednesday, 24 July 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jul 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. Region 39 (S15E48) produced an M1/1f at 24/1555 UTC with an associated Type IV radio sweep. This region continues to maintain a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration and has increased in spot count since yesterday. Two new regions were numbered today as Region 45 (N04E17) and 46 (N14E22).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 36 (S07W42) and 39 are both capable of producing a major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that started 22/0655 UTC continues with the tentative maximum of 28 pfu at 23/1025 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels for 25 and 26 July. This activity is a result of the X4 event at 23/0035 UTC. The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on 27 July. The proton event currently in progress is likely to continue for the next 24 hours.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jul to 27 Jul
Class M 75%75%75%
Class X 25%25%25%
Proton99%99%99%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Jul 208
  Predicted    25 Jul-27 Jul  210/210/215
  90 Day Mean        24 Jul 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul  011/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Jul  015/015
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul  030/030-020/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul to 27 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%20%
Minor storm 30%15%05%
Major-severe storm 10%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%40%30%
Minor storm 40%20%10%
Major-severe storm 10%10%05%

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