Viewing archive of Tuesday, 23 July 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jul 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jul 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 39 (S15E59) produced an X4/2b event at 23/0035 UTC with associated Type II and Type IV radio sweeps and an 1800 sfu Tenflare. A full-halo CME was visible in the SOHO/LASCO imagery with this event. This region now exceeds 900 millionths of white light area with a magnetic delta configuration. Another region of interest is Region 36 (S07W28). It also exceeds 900 millionths of white light with a magnetic beta-gamma configuration. Two new regions were numbered today as Regions 43 (N12E56) and 44 (S19E57).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Regions 36 and 39 both have potential to produce isolated major events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. Isolated active to minor storm conditions were observed at high latitudes. The greater than 10 MeV proton event which began at 22/0655 UTC continues with the tentative maximum of 28 pfu at 23/1025 UTC. The energetic electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit were at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on 24 July. Minor storm conditions are expected on 25 July with active to minor conditions on 26 July. These conditions are anticipated due to the X-class event observed today. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue for most of the period. The energetic electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit are expected to remain at high levels for the next several days.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jul to 26 Jul
Class M 75%75%75%
Class X 25%25%25%
Proton99%99%99%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Jul 198
  Predicted    24 Jul-26 Jul  195/195/200
  90 Day Mean        23 Jul 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jul  012/020
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Jul  015/015
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul  015/015-030/040-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jul to 26 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%40%30%
Minor storm 05%30%15%
Major-severe storm 01%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%50%40%
Minor storm 10%40%20%
Major-severe storm 05%10%10%

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