Viewing archive of Tuesday, 23 July 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jul 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jul 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 39 (S15E59) produced
an X4/2b event at 23/0035 UTC with associated Type II and Type IV
radio sweeps and an 1800 sfu Tenflare. A full-halo CME was visible
in the SOHO/LASCO imagery with this event. This region now exceeds
900 millionths of white light area with a magnetic delta
configuration. Another region of interest is Region 36 (S07W28).
It also exceeds 900 millionths of white light with a magnetic
beta-gamma configuration. Two new regions were numbered today as
Regions 43 (N12E56) and 44 (S19E57).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Regions 36 and 39 both have potential to produce
isolated major events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. Isolated active
to minor storm conditions were observed at high latitudes. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event which began at 22/0655 UTC
continues with the tentative maximum of 28 pfu at 23/1025 UTC. The
energetic electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit were at high
levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 24 July. Minor storm conditions
are expected on 25 July with active to minor conditions on 26 July.
These conditions are anticipated due to the X-class event observed
today. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue
for most of the period. The energetic electron fluxes at
geosynchronous orbit are expected to remain at high levels for the
next several days.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jul to 26 Jul
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 99% | 99% | 99% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jul 198 Predicted 24 Jul-26 Jul 195/195/200 90 Day Mean 23 Jul 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jul 012/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jul 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul 015/015-030/040-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jul to 26 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 50% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 40% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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