Viewing archive of Monday, 22 July 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jul 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Only infrequent small subflares occurred. New Region 39 (S12E68), the likely site of the X3 event late on 20 July, rotated fully into view as a moderate-sized group with penumbra on both the leader and trailer spots. Limb proximity hinders magnetic analysis. Other new regions emerging on the disk today are; 40 (S22E01), 41 (N16E22), and 42 (S18E38). Region 30 (N20W86) is beginning its west limb passage, and Region 36 (S07W15) remains the most prominent region visible.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Regions 30, 36, and 39 are all possible sites for an isolated event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels during the period. Nearly steady southward Bz (5 nT) coupled with enhanced radial speed (500+ km/s), brought intervals of disturbed conditions. A small greater than 10 MeV proton event, likely related to the X3 on 20 July, began at 22/0655 UTC. The tentative maximum is 26 pfu at 22/1635 UTC. Fluxes remain in excess of 20 pfu now. The energetic electron flux at geosynchronous orbit attained high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jul to 25 Jul
Class M70%70%70%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton60%30%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Jul 190
  Predicted   23 Jul-25 Jul  190/190/195
  90 Day Mean        22 Jul 161
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul  017/019
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Jul  015/017
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul  015/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul to 25 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%30%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%40%40%
Minor storm25%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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