Viewing archive of Sunday, 21 July 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jul 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was high. The event in progress at issue
time yesterday, from behind the east limb near S10, reached the X3
level at 20/2130UTC. There was an associated type II sweep and
tenflare. The site of the activity has, as yet, failed to fully
appear, but should do so in the next 24 hours. Some plage and
faculae are now visible in that vicinity. Elsewhere, Regions 30
(N18W76) and 36 (S06W02) continue to impress in white light and
H-alpha, but have been relatively quiet. One new region, 38
(N17E51), was assigned.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Watch the east limb for more energetic activity over the
next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels during the
period. Faster than normal solar wind, with some southward Bz,
brought periods of minor storm conditions to local nighttime
sectors. An enhancement in the greater than 10 MeV protons has
occurred, with current readings near 5 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV
electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels for a few
hours near midday.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to mildly active for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jul to 24 Jul
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jul 183 Predicted 22 Jul-24 Jul 185/185/185 90 Day Mean 21 Jul 161
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul 013/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jul 015/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul 010/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul to 24 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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