Viewing archive of Thursday, 18 July 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jul 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 199 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jul 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity was at high levels. Region 30 (N18W38) produced an X1/2b flare at 18/0744 UTC with an associated Type II, Type IV, and discrete frequency radio bursts. SOHO/LASCO imagery indicates a faint full halo CME. Region 30 continues its gradual decay but retains a beta-gamma-delta magnetic classification. Region 36 (S07E37) has grown to 860 millionths and 26 spots. This large compact region did not produce any significant activity during the last 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. M-Class activity is expected from Region 30 and Region 36. There is also the possibility of isolated X-class activity from these regions.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The PCA event that began on 16/2215 UTC ended at 18/0300 UTC with a peak absorption observed on the Thule 30 MHz riometer of 6 Db at 17/1600 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began on 16/1750 UTC ended at 18/1550 UTC, peak value reached 234 pfu at 17/1600 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active. A CME shock from the X1 event on 18/0744 UTC is expected to arrive early on day two of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jul to 21 Jul
Class M 75%75%75%
Class X 20%20%20%
Proton50%15%15%
PCAFYellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Jul 181
  Predicted    19 Jul-21 Jul  185/185/190
  90 Day Mean        18 Jul 161
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jul  015/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Jul  008/010
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul  015/020-015/015-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jul to 21 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%35%25%
Minor storm 10%15%10%
Major-severe storm 01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%40%30%
Minor storm 15%20%15%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%

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