Viewing archive of Thursday, 18 July 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jul 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 199 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jul 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity was at high levels. Region 30 (N18W38)
produced an X1/2b flare at 18/0744 UTC with an associated Type II,
Type IV, and discrete frequency radio bursts. SOHO/LASCO imagery
indicates a faint full halo CME. Region 30 continues its gradual
decay but retains a beta-gamma-delta magnetic classification.
Region 36 (S07E37) has grown to 860 millionths and 26 spots. This
large compact region did not produce any significant activity during
the last 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. M-Class activity is expected from Region 30 and Region
36. There is also the possibility of isolated X-class activity from
these regions.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The PCA
event that began on 16/2215 UTC ended at 18/0300 UTC with a peak
absorption observed on the Thule 30 MHz riometer of 6 Db at 17/1600
UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began on 16/1750 UTC
ended at 18/1550 UTC, peak value reached 234 pfu at 17/1600 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active. A CME shock from the X1 event on
18/0744 UTC is expected to arrive early on day two of the forecast
period.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jul to 21 Jul
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 50% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | Yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jul 181 Predicted 19 Jul-21 Jul 185/185/190 90 Day Mean 18 Jul 161
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jul 015/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jul 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul 015/020-015/015-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jul to 21 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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