Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 July 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jul 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to moderate levels. Region 30 (N19W12) produced an M1 X-ray flare at 15/2132 UTC associated with a 460 sfu Tenflare. Region 30 also produced C-class flares during the period. It continued to grow during the period and is now around 1500 millionths in area. It remained magnetically complex with multiple magnetic delta configurations within its interior spots. A full-halo CME was visible in SOHO/LASCO imagery beginning around 16/1600 UTC. Flare activity in Region 30 may have been the source for this CME. Region 36 (S07E64) produced isolated subflares during the period. It is still too close to the east limb for a detailed analysis, but appeared to be moderate in size and complexity. New Region 37 (N17E74) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain at mostly moderate levels. Region 30 is expected to produce M-class flares. It is also capable of producing another major flare during the period. Region 36 could produce an isolated M-class flare during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. A greater than 10 MeV proton event began at geosynchronous orbit at 16/1750 UTC following yesterday's X3/3b flare. The greater than 10 MeV flux at the close of the period was 32 pfu and gradually increasing.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to increase to unsettled to minor storm levels during 17 - 18 July in anticipation of a CME passage associated with the X3/3b flare of 15 July. The shock is expected to arrive around midday tomorrow. Field activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on 19 July. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to peak on 17 July then slowly decay through the rest of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jul to 19 Jul
Class M 80%80%80%
Class X 15%15%15%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Jul 172
  Predicted    17 Jul-19 Jul  180/185/185
  90 Day Mean        16 Jul 161
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul  005/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Jul  008/009
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul  025/030-020/020-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul to 19 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm 20%20%10%
Major-severe storm 10%10%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm 25%25%15%
Major-severe storm 15%15%05%

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