Viewing archive of Monday, 15 July 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jul 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 30 (N18W00) produced an X3/3b flare at 15/2008UTC associated with a 1900 sfu Tenflare, a Type IV radio sweep, and a magnetic crochet (based on Boulder USGS magnetometer data). This region also produced frequent C-class flares including a C9/Sf at 15/1155 UTC associated with a Type II radio sweep. Region 30 showed significant growth in its trailer spots during the past few days including the formation of multiple magnetic delta configurations. The remaining active regions were unremarkable. New Regions 35 (S09E63) and 36 (S07E76) were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 30 is likely to produce isolated M-class flares. Region 30 could also produce another major flare during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity has been at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to increase to quiet to active levels on 16 July due to recurrent coronal hole effects. Activity may increase to active to minor storm levels on 17 July following today's X-flare. A greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to begin early on 16 July, also due to today's X-flare.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jul to 18 Jul
Class M75%75%75%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton50%10%10%
PCAFRed
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Jul 160
  Predicted   16 Jul-18 Jul  160/165/170
  90 Day Mean        15 Jul 161
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul  001/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Jul  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul  012/012-020/020-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul to 18 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%40%35%
Minor storm15%20%15%
Major-severe storm05%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%45%40%
Minor storm20%25%20%
Major-severe storm10%15%10%

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

100%

Space weather facts

Last X-flare:2017/09/10X8.2
Last M-flare:2017/10/20M1.0
Last geomagnetic storm:2019/10/26Kp5 (G1)
Number of spotless days in 2019:246
Current stretch spotless days:19

This day in history*

Solar flares
12012M3.5
21999M3.4
31999M2.2
42000M1.6
52012M1.4
ApG
1200250G3
2200342G3
3201727G1
4200417
5200716
*since 1994

Social networks