Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 July 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jul 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 30 (N19E12) produced numerous B- and C-class flares again today. A slight growth of penumbral coverage was observed today in white light analysis. The dominant intermediate spot continues to show delta magnetic characteristics along with a weak secondary delta spot just to the northwest of it. A re-emergence of a single alpha spot was seen in Region 28 (S16W40). Region 29 (S14W29) continues to decay. New Region 34 (S20E05) was assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. There is a chance that Region 30 could produce another major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels through day one. Days two and three may experience periods of active conditions due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jul to 17 Jul
Class M70%70%70%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton05%10%10%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Jul 144
  Predicted   15 Jul-17 Jul  145/145/145
  90 Day Mean        14 Jul 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul  005/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Jul  005/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul  008/010-012/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul to 17 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%20%
Minor storm05%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%30%25%
Minor storm05%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%

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