Viewing archive of Saturday, 13 July 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jul 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 30
produced an M1/2f flare at 13/0008 UTC. This region also produced
numerous B- and C-class flares with minor discrete radio bursts and
sweeps. The number of umbrae has doubled today although penumbral
coverage appears to have slightly decayed since yesterday. Magnetic
structure has changed little today, the beta-gamma-delta
configuration remains evident. A 20 degree disappearing filament
was observed in the southeast quadrant at approximately 13/1300 UTC.
A partial halo CME was seen in SOHO/LASCO imagery which does not
appear to be earth directed. Regions 32 (S20W14) and 33 (N08E00)
were assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. Region 30 is still capable of producing an
isolated major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through days one and
two. Day three may experience isolated active conditions due to a
favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jul to 16 Jul
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jul 135 Predicted 14 Jul-16 Jul 135/135/140 90 Day Mean 13 Jul 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul 012/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul 006/008-008/010-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul to 16 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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