Viewing archive of Saturday, 13 July 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jul 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 30 produced an M1/2f flare at 13/0008 UTC. This region also produced numerous B- and C-class flares with minor discrete radio bursts and sweeps. The number of umbrae has doubled today although penumbral coverage appears to have slightly decayed since yesterday. Magnetic structure has changed little today, the beta-gamma-delta configuration remains evident. A 20 degree disappearing filament was observed in the southeast quadrant at approximately 13/1300 UTC. A partial halo CME was seen in SOHO/LASCO imagery which does not appear to be earth directed. Regions 32 (S20W14) and 33 (N08E00) were assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 30 is still capable of producing an isolated major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through days one and two. Day three may experience isolated active conditions due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jul to 16 Jul
Class M70%70%70%
Class X15%15%15%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Jul 135
  Predicted   14 Jul-16 Jul  135/135/140
  90 Day Mean        13 Jul 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul  012/020
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Jul  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul  006/008-008/010-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul to 16 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm01%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm05%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%

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