Viewing archive of Friday, 12 July 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jul 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2002 . . . . Corrected Copy . . . . . . . .

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 30 (N19E37) appears to be the only flaring region on the visible disk. Multiple minor B- and C-class flares were produced from this region today. Magnetic complexity and spot coverage continue to show steady growth. Region is now depicting a strong delta magnetic configuration in the trailing portion of cluster, and remains a beta-gamma-delta magnetic complex. The few remaining spotted regions have shown little change throughout the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 30 continues to exhibit the potential for an isolated major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at unsettled to minor storm levels.A coronal hole in the southwest quadrant in concert with a weak eastern flanking shock, from the partial halo CME observed on the 07th of July, is believed to be responsible for the elevated geomagnetic field activity.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active conditions are possible on day one as the effects from the geoeffective coronal hole wane.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jul to 15 Jul
Class M70%70%70%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Jul 133
  Predicted   13 Jul-15 Jul  135/140/140
  90 Day Mean        12 Jul 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul  008/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Jul  016/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul  012/012-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul to 15 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%15%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%20%20%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

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