Viewing archive of Wednesday, 10 July 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jul 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was low. Weak, C-class activity
occurred in Region 25 (S20W03) and Region 30 (N19E63). Region 19
(S19W70) has been mostly quiescent on its approach toward the west
limb, and appears to be declining in size and complexity. Region 30
is now the largest active region on the visible disk (areal coverage
about 450 millionths), and appears to have mixed polarity within the
leading penumbra. Delta spots may become apparent as it rotates
into better view. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 30 is a potential source of M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active, under the apparent
influence of weak effects from an extension of the north polar
coronal hole and a small transient passage.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the first day of the forecast
period, then trend toward more active conditions by the end of the
period, under the expected influence of a near-equatorial coronal
hole.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jul to 13 Jul
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jul 129 Predicted 11 Jul-13 Jul 130/130/125 90 Day Mean 10 Jul 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul 009/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul 008/008-010/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul to 13 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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