Viewing archive of Friday, 5 July 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jul 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 17 (S18W89) produced an M3/Sf flare at 05/1326 UTC. This flare was associated with a Type II/IV radio sweep and an apparent CME directed off the southwest solar limb. Region 19 (S18W08) produced a C6/Sf flare at 05/1556 UTC. This region, as well as Region 21 (S29W21), also produced a number of other subflares. New Region 26 (N24W58) emerged on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Regions 17 and 19 remain the most likely source of M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with the possibility of isolated active periods. An equatorial coronal hole is expected to influence activity levels over the next few days.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jul to 08 Jul
Class M50%40%40%
Class X05%01%01%
Proton05%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Jul 139
  Predicted   06 Jul-08 Jul  135/130/130
  90 Day Mean        05 Jul 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul  004/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Jul  012/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul  010/015-010/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul to 08 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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