Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 July 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jul 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 17 (S18W76)
produced the largest flare of the past 24 hours, an M1/Sf at 04/0734
UTC, as well as several C-class subflares throughout the day. This
area appears to be decaying as it approaches the west limb. Region
19 (S17E07) also produced C-class activity and has increased
slightly in magnetic complexity. New Region 25 (S18E75) rotated
around the east limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. M-class flares are possible in both Regions 17 and 19.
Region 17 remains the most likely to produce a major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a general increase in
activity levels over the next three days due to a coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jul to 07 Jul
| Class M | 60% | 50% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jul 146 Predicted 05 Jul-07 Jul 140/135/130 90 Day Mean 04 Jul 170
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul 003/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul 004/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul 010/008-010/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul to 07 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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