Viewing archive of Sunday, 30 June 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jun 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity was low. The highlight of the period was a very long duration, C2 X-ray event that began around 0915Z, peaked at 1257Z, and ended at 1625Z. This event was associated with an impressive coronal mass ejection off the SE limb, near Region 19 (S18E61). This event followed another CME associated with a filament eruption from near S40W10. Neither CME appears earthbound. Region 19 is a moderately complex spot group with a white light area of over 400 millionths. Region 17 (S19W23) has also increased in size and appears to have developed some magnetic complexity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. There is a chance for an isolated M-class flare from Regions 17 and 19.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetical field was quiet to unsettled with isolated high latitude active periods.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods during local nighttime hours.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jul to 03 Jul
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Jun 147
  Predicted   01 Jul-03 Jul  145/145/140
  90 Day Mean        30 Jun 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun  005/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Jun  012/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul  010/010-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul to 03 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%30%25%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

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