Viewing archive of Thursday, 27 June 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jun 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 178 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jun 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Isolated B-class X-ray flares occurred, most of which were optically uncorrelated. Minor decay was observed in Region 8 (S12W41), which was the source for a B-class X-ray flare late in the period. Region 5 (N12W72) was also the source for an isolated B-class subflare. It remained simply-structured as it approached the west limb. Region 11 (S11W05) showed minor decay and remained a simple bipole. The remaining active regions were stable and simply-structured. New Region 17 (S19E14) emerged during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. Isolated C-class flares are possible from Regions 8 and 11.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity remained at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jun to 30 Jun
Class M 25%25%25%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Jun 139
  Predicted    28 Jun-30 Jun  140/140/140
  90 Day Mean        27 Jun 174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jun  005/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Jun  004/008
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 28 Jun-30 Jun  007/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jun to 30 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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