Viewing archive of Wednesday, 26 June 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jun 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity increased to low levels. A long-duration C1 X-ray flare occurred at 26/0820 UTC associated with a prominence eruption on the northeast limb near NE17. A coronal mass ejection was also associated with the eruption, but did not appear to have an Earthward component. Region 8 (S12W29) showed a minor degree of magnetic complexity, but was stable with no significant changes. The remaining regions were stable and simply-structured. Note: yesterday's 90-day mean 10.7 cm flux value of 154 was incorrect. The correct value was 175.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jun to 29 Jun
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Jun 144
  Predicted   27 Jun-29 Jun  145/145/145
  90 Day Mean        26 Jun 175
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun  008/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Jun  007/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun  007/008-007/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun to 29 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%30%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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