Viewing archive of Wednesday, 26 June 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jun 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels. A long-duration
C1 X-ray flare occurred at 26/0820 UTC associated with a prominence
eruption on the northeast limb near NE17. A coronal mass ejection
was also associated with the eruption, but did not appear to have an
Earthward component. Region 8 (S12W29) showed a minor degree of
magnetic complexity, but was stable with no significant changes. The
remaining regions were stable and simply-structured. Note: yesterday's
90-day mean 10.7 cm flux value of 154 was incorrect. The correct value
was 175.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jun to 29 Jun
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jun 144 Predicted 27 Jun-29 Jun 145/145/145 90 Day Mean 26 Jun 175
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun 008/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jun 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun 007/008-007/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun to 29 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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