Viewing archive of Friday, 21 June 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jun 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jun 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours with the occurrence of just two C-class flares. The first of these was a C1 at 0506 UTC that appears to be associated with activity just beyond the southwest limb. The second C-flare was a C1 at 2020 UTC: at the time of forecast issue there was not data available to determine a source region. Region 8 (S08E39) continues to be the largest group on the disk but was stable and quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Quiet to unsettled levels are expected to prevail for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jun to 24 Jun
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Jun 140
  Predicted   22 Jun-24 Jun  145/145/150
  90 Day Mean        21 Jun 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jun  006/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Jun  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun  007/008-010/010-007/006
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun to 24 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm05%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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