Viewing archive of Thursday, 20 June 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jun 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Only two low C-class events were observed during the period. The largest region on the visible disk is Region 8 (S09E52). This region is a DKO beta group which has shown modest growth during the period with a white light area of 480 millionths. A new region was numbered today as Region 9 (S19W66).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet to unsettled with one period of active conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jun to 23 Jun
Class M 25%25%25%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Jun 145
  Predicted    21 Jun-23 Jun  150/155/155
  90 Day Mean        20 Jun 177
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun  013/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Jun  008/012
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun  008/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun to 23 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm 10%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
PLAIN This message is for users of the NOAA/SEC Space Weather Operations sunspot region numbers. As you may have noticed, region number 10000 was assigned on June 14. Space Weather operations is going through the sequence of Region numbers as 9998, 9999, 0000, 0001, and so on. SEC's product text discussions of the active regions will ignore the leading zeroes (for example, we will say 'Region number 5' rather than Region number '0005'). However, the Geoalert product, the Region Report product, as well as the USAF and IUWDS data exchange codes will preserve the 4 digit format. The necessity of using four digits is for operational purposes only. For historical purposes all regions beyond Region 9999 will be understood to be in a series of region numbers 10000 and higher.

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