Viewing archive of Tuesday, 18 June 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jun 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

III. Event Probabilities 19 Jun to 21 Jun

Class M	25%	25%	25%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       18 Jun 143
  Predicted   19 Jun-21 Jun  145/150/150
  90 Day Mean        18 Jun 177

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun  005/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Jun  005/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun  010/012-015/015-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun to 21 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	15%	20%	20%
Minor storm	05%	10%	10%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	20%	25%	30%
Minor storm	10%	10%	15%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	05%

PLAIN This message is for users of the NOAA/SEC Space Weather Operations sunspot region numbers. As you may have noticed, region number 10000 was assigned on June 14. Space Weather operations is going through the sequence of Region numbers as 9998, 9999, 0000, 0001, and so on. SEC's product text discussions of the active regions will ignore the leading zeroes (for example, we will say 'Region number 5' rather than Region number '0005'). However, the Geoalert product, the Region Report product, as well as the USAF and IUWDS data exchange codes will preserve the 4 digit format. The necessity of using four digits is for operational purposes only. For historical purposes all regions beyond Region 9999 will be understood to be in a series of region numbers 10000 and higher.

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