Viewing archive of Tuesday, 18 June 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jun 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. Three new regions were numbered today as Region 6 (S08W23), Region 7 (N12E17) and Region 8 (S11E75).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Unsettled to active conditions are possible on 21 June due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jun to 21 Jun
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Jun 143
  Predicted   19 Jun-21 Jun  145/150/150
  90 Day Mean        18 Jun 177
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun  005/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Jun  005/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun  010/012-015/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun to 21 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%25%30%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
PLAIN This message is for users of the NOAA/SEC Space Weather Operations sunspot region numbers. As you may have noticed, region number 10000 was assigned on June 14. Space Weather operations is going through the sequence of Region numbers as 9998, 9999, 0000, 0001, and so on. SEC's product text discussions of the active regions will ignore the leading zeroes (for example, we will say 'Region number 5' rather than Region number '0005'). However, the Geoalert product, the Region Report product, as well as the USAF and IUWDS data exchange codes will preserve the 4 digit format. The necessity of using four digits is for operational purposes only. For historical purposes all regions beyond Region 9999 will be understood to be in a series of region numbers 10000 and higher.

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