Viewing archive of Monday, 17 June 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jun 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Only minor C-class events were observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Unsettled to active conditions are possible on 19-20 June due to a well positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jun to 20 Jun
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Jun 143
  Predicted   18 Jun-20 Jun  145/145/150
  90 Day Mean        17 Jun 178
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun  007/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Jun  005/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun  005/008-010/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun to 20 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
PLAIN This message is for users of the NOAA/SEC Space Weather Operations sunspot region numbers. As you may have noticed, we are steadily approaching region number 10000. The plan for Space Weather operations is to go through the sequence of Region numbers as 9998, 9999, 0000, 0001, and so on. SEC's product text discussions of the active regions will ignore the leading zeroes (for example, we will say 'Region number 5' rather than Region number '0005'). However, the Geoalert product, the Region Report product, as well as the USAF and IUWDS data exchange codes will preserve the 4 digit format. The necessity of using four digits is for operational purposes only. For historical purposes all regions beyond Region 9999 will be understood to be in a series of region numbers 10000 and higher.

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