Viewing archive of Sunday, 16 June 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jun 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity was low. The most notable event of the period was a long duration C1.0 flare at 16/0814 UTC. There were no optical reports associated with this event, but a CME was evident in LASCO imagery just following the flare, from a presumed source behind the northeast limb, near N35. Active prominences have been visible in H-alpha imagery in this area for the past 24 hours. Other activity included an optically uncorrelated C1.4 flare at 16/0332 UTC. B-class activity was observed in Region 9991 (S21W47) and Region 3 (N00E49). New Region 5 (N13E74) rotated into view and was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain mostly low for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to persist at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jun to 19 Jun
Class M20%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Jun 137
  Predicted   17 Jun-19 Jun  140/145/145
  90 Day Mean        16 Jun 178
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jun  004/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Jun  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jun to 19 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
PLAIN This message is for users of the NOAA/SEC Space Weather Operations sunspot region numbers. As you may have noticed, we are steadily approaching region number 10000. The plan for Space Weather operations is to go through the sequence of Region numbers as 9998, 9999, 0000, 0001, and so on. SEC's product text discussions of the active regions will ignore the leading zeroes (for example, we will say 'Region number 5' rather than Region number '0005'). However, the Geoalert product, the Region Report product, as well as the USAF and IUWDS data exchange codes will preserve the 4 digit format. The necessity of using four digits is for operational purposes only. For historical purposes all regions beyond Region 9999 will be understood to be in a series of regions numbers 10000 and higher.

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