Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 June 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jun 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. The largest event was an optically uncorrelated C1.7 flare at 15/0058 UTC. Lesser C- and B-class flare activity occurred in Region 0000 (N18E36), Region 1 (N20E38), and newly numbered Region 3 (N00E63). Region 9997 (N12E31) was combined with former Region 9998 to produce a single beta-class group of penless spots. Other regions that emerged on the disk and were numbered today included Region 2 (S24W08) and Region 4 (S16E10).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low. A small chance for an isolated moderate flare exists for the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mainly quiet. One isolated unsettled period was observed at higher latitudes near the end of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun
Class M25%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Jun 135
  Predicted   16 Jun-18 Jun  140/145/145
  90 Day Mean        15 Jun 178
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun  004/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Jun  003/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun  008/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
PLAIN This message is for users of the NOAA/SEC Space Weather Operations sunspot region numbers. As you may have noticed, we are steadily approaching region number 10000. The plan for Space Weather operations is to go through the sequence of Region numbers as 9998, 9999, 0000, 0001, and so on. SEC's product text discussions of the active regions will ignore the leading zeroes (for example, we will say 'Region number 5' rather than Region number '0005'). However, the Geoalert product, the Region Report product, as well as the USAF and IUWDS data exchange codes will preserve the 4 digit format. The necessity of using four digits is for operational purposes only. For historical purposes all regions beyond Region 9999 will be understood to be in a series of regions numbers 10000 and higher.

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