Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 June 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jun 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

III. Event Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun

Class M	25%	30%	30%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       15 Jun 135
  Predicted   16 Jun-18 Jun  140/145/145
  90 Day Mean        15 Jun 178

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun  004/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Jun  003/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun  008/008-005/008-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	15%	10%	10%
Minor storm	01%	01%	01%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	20%	15%	15%
Minor storm	05%	05%	05%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

PLAIN This message is for users of the NOAA/SEC Space Weather Operations sunspot region numbers. As you may have noticed, we are steadily approaching region number 10000. The plan for Space Weather operations is to go through the sequence of Region numbers as 9998, 9999, 0000, 0001, and so on. SEC's product text discussions of the active regions will ignore the leading zeroes (for example, we will say 'Region number 5' rather than Region number '0005'). However, the Geoalert product, the Region Report product, as well as the USAF and IUWDS data exchange codes will preserve the 4 digit format. The necessity of using four digits is for operational purposes only. For historical purposes all regions beyond Region 9999 will be understood to be in a series of regions numbers 10000 and higher.

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