Viewing archive of Friday, 14 June 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jun 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

III. Event Probabilities 15 Jun to 17 Jun

Class M	20%	25%	30%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       14 Jun 131
  Predicted   15 Jun-17 Jun  135/140/145
  90 Day Mean        14 Jun 179

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun  007/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Jun  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun  010/010-008/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun to 17 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	20%	15%	10%
Minor storm	10%	05%	01%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	25%	20%	15%
Minor storm	10%	05%	01%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

PlAIN: This message is for users of the NOAA/SEC Space Weather Operations sunspot region numbers. As you may have noticed, we are steadily approaching region number 10000. The plan for Space Weather operations is to go through the sequence of Region numbers as 9998, 9999, 0000, 0001, and so on. SEC's product text discussions of the active regions will ignore the leading zeroes (for example, we will say 'Region number 5' rather than Region number '0005'). However, the Geoalert product, the Region Report product, as well as the USAF and IUWDS data exchange codes will preserve the 4 digit format. The necessity of using four digits is for operational purposes only. For historical purposes all regions beyond Region 9999 will be understood to be in a series of region numbers 10000 and higher.

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