Viewing archive of Tuesday, 11 June 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jun 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 162 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jun 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Only a few small C-class flares occurred, which were mostly associated with Region 9987 (S15W43). This region has continued to show slow growth in magnetic complexity and penumbral coverage. An eruptive prominence was observed on the west limb at 11/1125 UTC. SOHO/LASCO depicted a weak CME that does not appear to be earth directed. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 9987 remains capable of producing isolated low level M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jun to 14 Jun
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Jun 148
  Predicted   12 Jun-14 Jun  145/150/160
  90 Day Mean        11 Jun 180
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jun  010/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Jun  005/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun  005/010-005/008-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jun to 14 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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