Viewing archive of Sunday, 9 June 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jun 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jun 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A lone C1 x-ray flare was the highlight of the flare activity during the period. It went optically uncorrelated and occurred at 09/1009 UTC. Region 9987 (S15W16) showed a slight increase in sunspot numbers. The remainder of the numbered regions showed very little (if any) modification throughout the period. New Regions 9993 (N06W20) and 9994 (N10E59) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 9987 remains the most likely source for flare production.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity has been at quiet to active levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jun to 12 Jun
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Jun 157
  Predicted   10 Jun-12 Jun  155/150/145
  90 Day Mean        09 Jun 181
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jun  012/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Jun  012/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun  008/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jun to 12 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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