Viewing archive of Saturday, 8 June 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jun 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 159 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jun 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity was low. Only a few small flares
occurred. Region 9987 (S15W02) continued to grow, increasing sunspot
number and magnetic complexity. New Region 9992 (S20E74) rotated
onto the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 9987 is the most likely source of flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A shock was observed at
the NASA ACE spacecraft at 08/1028 UTC and was followed by a Sudden
Impulse at ground magnetometers (16nT at Boulder) at 08/1141 UTC.
This activity is believed to be related to the CME that occurred on
05 June. The observed Afr index for 07 June reported in Part V is
estimated from Boulder observations.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active becoming quiet to unsettled by 09
June.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jun to 11 Jun
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jun 155 Predicted 09 Jun-11 Jun 150/150/155 90 Day Mean 08 Jun 181
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jun 006/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jun 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jun-11 Jun 008/012-008/012-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jun to 11 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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