Viewing archive of Friday, 31 May 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 May 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 151 Issued at 2200Z on 31 May 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. The largest flare during the period was an M2 x-ray flare that occurred at 31/0016 UTC. The source region, based on EIT/LASCO imagery, is believed to originate from an area just behind the east limb in the proximity of newly numbered Region 9979 (S31E77). A long duration C3 x-ray flare that occurred 31/0321 UTC had an associated Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 498 km/s. The source region for this event appears to have originated from the northwest limb, again, based on EIT/LASCO imagery. Region 9973 (S16E34) produced several minor C-class flares and retains a moderately complex beta-gamma magnetic structure to the spot group. Regions 9977 (S20W41) and 9978 (S20E62) were also numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 9973 has a slight chance of producing a major flare event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jun to 03 Jun
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 May 182
  Predicted   01 Jun-03 Jun  175/170/165
  90 Day Mean        31 May 182
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 May  005/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 May  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Jun-03 Jun  005/008-005/008-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jun to 03 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

44%
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/03/28X1.1
Last M-flare2024/04/18M1.5
Last geomagnetic storm2024/04/16Kp5 (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
March 2024104.9 -19.8

This day in history*

Solar flares
12022M3.7
22001M2.91
32022M1.67
42021M1.1
52022M1.09
ApG
1200262G3
2199627G1
3199416G1
4201714
5200012
*since 1994

Social networks