Viewing archive of Thursday, 30 May 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 May 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 150 Issued at 2200Z on 30 May 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9973 (S16E48) produced the largest flare of the period, an M1/Sf occurred at 30/1725 UTC. This region also produced several minor subflares, some of which were associated with Type III radio sweep activity. Also, it may have been responsible for several optically uncorrelated C-class flares. It underwent a very slight decay, but retained a gamma magnetic configuration within its trailer spots. Old Region 9957 produced the first M1 x-ray flare today at 30/0532 UTC. The associated partial halo CME seen on LASCO imagery does not appear as though it will be geoeffective. Region 9963 (N16W56) produced a lone C1/Sf flare during the period. This region underwent some decay today, although it retains a weak gamma magnetic classification in its lead cluster of spots. New Region 9976 (S10E01) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 9973 has a slight chance of producing a major event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite hinted that a weak shock passage occurred at approximately 30/0030 UTC, with unsettled conditions following. This was believed to be from the disappearing filament on 27 May.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active conditions may be possible through day one of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 31 May to 02 Jun
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 May 180
  Predicted   31 May-02 Jun  180/175/170
  90 Day Mean        30 May 182
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 May  006/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 May  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 31 May-02 Jun  008/010-005/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 May to 02 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

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