Viewing archive of Sunday, 19 May 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 May 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Several small C-class flares occurred. Region 9957 (N08E34) has shown a slight increase in area and sunspot count and retains its beta-gamma-delta magnetic classification. A new region was numbered today as Region 9961 (S22E76).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9957 is capable of producing a major event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm conditions. Minor storming subsided after 19/0900 UTC to quiet to unsettled conditions. This activity correlates well with the full halo CME observed on 16 May.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
Class M 75%75%75%
Class X 10%10%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 May 171
  Predicted    20 May-22 May  175/180/180
  90 Day Mean        19 May 184
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 May  015/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 May  018/020
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May  015/015-008/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm 10%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm 10%10%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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