Viewing archive of Friday, 17 May 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 May 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 17 May 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. An M1 event was observed by SOHO/LASCO EIT images at 17/0123 UTC from Region 9957 (N08E58). Another M1 occurred at 17/0754 UTC with an associated TYPE II radio sweep. This event was optically uncorrelated , however, EIT images suggest the source behind the NE limb. The largest event was an M2/Sf at 17/1608 UTC from Region 9954 (S22E40). Region 9957 is the most complex region on the disk and has developed a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. The region was split into two groups today with the leading spot group numbered as Region 9958 (N04E50). Another new region was numbered today as Region 9959 (N10E09).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9957 is capable of producing an isolated major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. An isolated active period was observed at high latitudes at 17/1800 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Active conditions are possible on 19 May as a result of the CME from 16 May.
III. Event Probabilities 18 May to 20 May
Class M75%75%75%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 May 157
  Predicted   18 May-20 May  160/165/170
  90 Day Mean        17 May 185
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 May  006/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 May  005/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May  010/010-020/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 May to 20 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%30%25%
Minor storm10%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%

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