Viewing archive of Thursday, 16 May 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 May 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 9948 (S22E01) produced a C4 long duration event at 16/0035 UTC which was optically correlated by the SOHO/LASCO EIT images. This event had associated Type II and Type IV radio sweeps and a full halo CME. Another long duration C5 was observed from this region at 16/0521 UTC which was also optically correlated by EIT images. Two new regions were numbered today as Region 9956 (S08W04) and 9957 (N06E67).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. The potential for an isolated M-class event is possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Active conditions are possible on 19 May as a result of the CME observed from Region 9948 at 16/0035 UTC.
III. Event Probabilities 17 May to 19 May
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 May 158
  Predicted   17 May-19 May  155/160/165
  90 Day Mean        16 May 185
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 May  007/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 May  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May  008/008-010/010-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May to 19 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm05%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

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