Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 May 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 May 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9948
(S22E14) produced an M1/Sf flare at 15/0813 UTC. SOHO/LASCO imagery
indicates the associated CME is not Earth directed. At
approximately 15/0900 UTC an eruptive filament lifted off the NW
limb producing a non Earth directed CME. Region 9945 (S05W39) has
shown gradual growth, polarity mixing in the trailing spots, and a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Three new regions were numbered
today: Region 9953 (N06W52), Region 9954 (S22E65), and Region 9955
(S14E67).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9945 and Region 9948 have the potential for low
level M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with one three
hour period of active conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 May 159 Predicted 16 May-18 May 160/165/160 90 Day Mean 15 May 186
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 May 020/032 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May 010/012-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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