Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 May 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 May 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9948 (S22E14) produced an M1/Sf flare at 15/0813 UTC. SOHO/LASCO imagery indicates the associated CME is not Earth directed. At approximately 15/0900 UTC an eruptive filament lifted off the NW limb producing a non Earth directed CME. Region 9945 (S05W39) has shown gradual growth, polarity mixing in the trailing spots, and a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Three new regions were numbered today: Region 9953 (N06W52), Region 9954 (S22E65), and Region 9955 (S14E67).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9945 and Region 9948 have the potential for low level M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with one three hour period of active conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 May 159
  Predicted   16 May-18 May  160/165/160
  90 Day Mean        15 May 186
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 May  020/032
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 May  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May  010/012-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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