Viewing archive of Sunday, 12 May 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 May 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9948 (S22E50) produced a C3.7 flare at 12/0953 UTC. Region 9934 (S16W72) remains the largest and most complex region on the disk. A slight decay in area coverage was observed in Region 9934. Region 9937 (S08W50) has developed a weak beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration in its trailing spot. New Region 9951 (N10E68) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9934 and Region 9937 have the potential for M-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active to minor storm conditions are possible on day two and three of the forecast period due to CME effects from the M1/Sf flare on 11/1132 UTC.
III. Event Probabilities 13 May to 15 May
Class M55%55%50%
Class X10%10%05%
Proton05%05%01%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 May 183
  Predicted   13 May-15 May  180/175/170
  90 Day Mean        12 May 187
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 May  020/040
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 May  015/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May  012/012-012/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May to 15 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%25%25%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%30%30%
Minor storm05%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%

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