Viewing archive of Friday, 10 May 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 May 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9946 (S06E38) produced the largest flare of the period, a C4/Sf at 10/0039 UTC. This region produced a couple of smaller C-class flares as well. Region 9934 (S16W46) has shown a rapid growth in penumbral coverage which contributed to the reformation of the delta magnetic complex in the trailing portion of the cluster. Even so, this region was limited to minor flares, point brightenings, and surges throughout the period. Region 9937 (S08W25) produced several small C-class flares and has shown a slight growth in the spot coverage since yesterday. Two new regions were numbered today: Region 9947 (N23W46) and Region 9948 (S21E71).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9934 appears quite capable of producing M-class flare activity
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels at middle latitudes. Quiet to active conditions were seen at the high latitudes. ACE satellite data suggests a solar sector boundary crossing may have been responsible for the elevated field activity at the higher latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 11 May to 13 May
Class M45%45%45%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 May 191
  Predicted   11 May-13 May  195/200/195
  90 Day Mean        10 May 187
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 May  011/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 May  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May  008/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May to 13 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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