Viewing archive of Thursday, 9 May 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 May 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Several minor
C-class flares occurred today, the only optically correlated flare
was a C1/Sf flare at 09/0800 UTC, from Region 9937 (S08W11). This
region has undergone a very slight decay in areal coverage of spot
group since yesterday. Region 9934 (S16W32) has continued to show
growth in penumbral coverage although the delta magnetic spot seen
yesterday is no longer evident. Remaining spotted regions were
mostly quiescent today. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 9934 remains capable of producing
M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The ACE
satellite indicated the passage of a weak shock (presumed to be the
result of the M1 flare at 07/0346 UTC) at approximately 09/0900 UTC.
The Bz energy channel remained north and several periods of
unsettled conditions persisted.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be a quiet to unsettled levels through the forecast
period.
III. Event Probabilities 10 May to 12 May
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 May 190 Predicted 10 May-12 May 190/190/195 90 Day Mean 09 May 187
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 May 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May 010/010-008/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May to 12 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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