Viewing archive of Thursday, 9 May 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 May 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Several minor C-class flares occurred today, the only optically correlated flare was a C1/Sf flare at 09/0800 UTC, from Region 9937 (S08W11). This region has undergone a very slight decay in areal coverage of spot group since yesterday. Region 9934 (S16W32) has continued to show growth in penumbral coverage although the delta magnetic spot seen yesterday is no longer evident. Remaining spotted regions were mostly quiescent today. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 9934 remains capable of producing M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The ACE satellite indicated the passage of a weak shock (presumed to be the result of the M1 flare at 07/0346 UTC) at approximately 09/0900 UTC. The Bz energy channel remained north and several periods of unsettled conditions persisted.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field activity is expected to be a quiet to unsettled levels through the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 10 May to 12 May
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 May 190
  Predicted   10 May-12 May  190/190/195
  90 Day Mean        09 May 187
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 May  009/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 May  012/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May  010/010-008/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May to 12 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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