Viewing archive of Wednesday, 8 May 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 May 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9934 (S16W19)
produced the largest flare of the period, a C4/Sf flare occurred at
08/1324 UTC. This region has shown a slight increase in penumbral
coverage. It has also acquired a delta magnetic class spot in the
trailing portion of the spot cluster. A C1/Sf occurred in Region
9935 (S17W41) at 07/2245 UTC. Optically uncorrelated, minor C-class
flares comprised the rest of the days flare activity. New Region
9946 (S08E65) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 9934 has the potential of producing
M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity has been at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. A
chance for isolated active conditions exists for the first day of
the forecast, due to a CME passage from the M1 event at 07/0346 UTC.
III. Event Probabilities 09 May to 11 May
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 May 187 Predicted 09 May-11 May 190/195/195 90 Day Mean 08 May 188
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 May 008/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 May 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May 015/015-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May to 11 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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