Viewing archive of Monday, 29 April 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Apr 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 119 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity was low. Several low, optically
uncorrelated C-class flares were observed, the largest being a C4 at
29/0940Z. The likely sources for most of the discrete X-ray bursts
were Regions 9915 (N12W53) and 9919 (N15W13). No appreciable changes
were noted in these or the remaining active regions on the visible
disk. The overall enhanced X-ray baseline is likely due to the
return of several active regions on or near the east limb.
Considerable CME activity was noted off the east limb over the past
24 hours. New Regions 9927 (S28E68), and 9928 (N18E75) were numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Continued C-class flares are likely from Regions 9915 and 9919. The
potential for activity at or near the east limb will increase over
the coming days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods at high latitudes. The disturbed conditions are due to a
high speed coronal hole stream that began on the 27th.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expect
to continue at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active
periods at high latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Apr to 02 May
| Class M | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Apr 153 Predicted 30 Apr-02 May 155/160/165 90 Day Mean 29 Apr 193
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr 014/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Apr 008/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May 008/010-005/008-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr to 02 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
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