Viewing archive of Monday, 29 April 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Apr 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 119 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Several low, optically uncorrelated C-class flares were observed, the largest being a C4 at 29/0940Z. The likely sources for most of the discrete X-ray bursts were Regions 9915 (N12W53) and 9919 (N15W13). No appreciable changes were noted in these or the remaining active regions on the visible disk. The overall enhanced X-ray baseline is likely due to the return of several active regions on or near the east limb. Considerable CME activity was noted off the east limb over the past 24 hours. New Regions 9927 (S28E68), and 9928 (N18E75) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Continued C-class flares are likely from Regions 9915 and 9919. The potential for activity at or near the east limb will increase over the coming days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods at high latitudes. The disturbed conditions are due to a high speed coronal hole stream that began on the 27th.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expect to continue at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods at high latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Apr to 02 May
Class M15%20%30%
Class X01%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Apr 153
  Predicted   30 Apr-02 May  155/160/165
  90 Day Mean        29 Apr 193
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr  014/019
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Apr  008/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May  008/010-005/008-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr to 02 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm10%05%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm15%05%15%
Major-severe storm05%01%05%

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