Viewing archive of Sunday, 28 April 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Apr 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 118 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Apr 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity was low. The only C-class flare of the
period was a C1/Sf from Region 9924 (S15W64) at 28/1823Z. No
significant activity or changes were noted in any of the active
regions.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Regions 9914 (N05W51), 9915 (N12W40) and 9919
(N14E01) have the best potential for isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The recurrent high speed
coronal hole stream developed late last period and produced mostly
active conditions during local nighttime hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to active levels. The active periods
will occur predominantly during local nighttime hours.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Apr to 01 May
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Apr 147 Predicted 29 Apr-01 May 145/145/150 90 Day Mean 28 Apr 194
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Apr 010/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Apr 015/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Apr-01 May 012/012-010/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Apr to 01 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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