Viewing archive of Friday, 19 April 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Apr 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 109 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Apr 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 9906 (S14W66) produced several C-class subflares during the past day. The largest was a C3/Sf at 19/1822 UTC. This region continues to decay slowly but retains appreciable size and magnetic complexity. New Regions 9913 (S15E23) and 9914 (N04E72) were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 9906 appears to be capable of M-class activity, including an isolated major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm. A shock was observed at ACE at 19/0804 UTC and was followed by an SI at ground magnetometers (36 nT at Boulder) at 19/0836 UTC. This shock is believed to be associated with the LDE M2/CME that occurred on 17 April.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to major storm levels for about the next 12 hours as the current CME passes. The field is expected to return to quiet to unsettled conditions by the end of the 3-day forecast period. A greater than 10 MeV proton event is possible if Region 9906 produces a major flare.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Apr to 22 Apr
Class M50%30%30%
Class X05%01%01%
Proton05%01%01%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Apr 180
  Predicted   20 Apr-22 Apr  175/170/170
  90 Day Mean        19 Apr 201
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Apr  035/054
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Apr  030/040
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Apr-22 Apr  030/040-012/015-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Apr to 22 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active60%30%10%
Minor storm30%10%05%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%40%15%
Minor storm40%15%05%
Major-severe storm15%10%01%

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