Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 April 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Apr 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. M-flares continued in Region complex 9893/9901 (N20W90), including an M1 at 15/2324 UTC and an M2/Sf at 16/1319 UTC. Region 9906 (S15W28) has regenerated since yesterday, increasing penumbral area in the trailer sunspot complex and reforming its delta configurations. Region 9907 (S03E07) has simplified somewhat.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. M-class activity is expected in either Region 9893/9901 or Region 9906. A major flare in Region 9906 is possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to become unsettled to active by the end of 17 April UTC in response to a CME which occurred early on 15 April. Activity should return to quiet to unsettled levels by the end of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Apr to 19 Apr
Class M 60%50%40%
Class X 10%05%01%
Proton10%05%01%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Apr 196
  Predicted    17 Apr-19 Apr  190/185/180
  90 Day Mean        16 Apr 201
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr  003/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Apr  006/008
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr  018/015-018/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr to 19 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%20%
Minor storm 10%10%05%
Major-severe storm 05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%30%
Minor storm 15%15%10%
Major-severe storm 05%05%01%

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