Viewing archive of Monday, 15 April 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Apr 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. The Region complex 9893/9901 (N20W75) continues to flare as it approaches the west limb. The largest was an M3/Sf at 15/0014 UTC. This region appears to retain its mixed polarities and sunspot delta configuration. Region 9906 (S15W14) also produced M-class activity, a long-duration M1/Sf at 15/0355 UTC. An apparent Earth-directed CME is visible in LASCO coronagraph images following this flare. Decay in Region 9906 since yesterday is most notable as fragmentation in the trailer sunspot complex. Region 9907 (S04E21) continues to develop but has not yet produced significant activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Additional M-class flares are possible in Regions 9906 and the 9893/9901 complex, as is an isolated major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet unsettled for the first day of the forecast period. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on days two and three in response to the CME mentioned in Part IA.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Apr to 18 Apr
Class M75%50%50%
Class X10%05%01%
Proton10%05%01%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Apr 203
  Predicted   16 Apr-18 Apr  200/190/185
  90 Day Mean        15 Apr 202
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr  008/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Apr  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr  008/008-018/015-018/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr to 18 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%30%30%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%40%40%
Minor storm05%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%

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